Keynote / Invited Lecture 5

Title: Fuzzy Relational Calculus on Energy Options?-Towards Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty

Speaker: Professor Ashok Deshpande PhD, Founding Chair: Berkeley Initiative in Soft Computing (BISC) - UC Berkeley CA; Guest Faculty: University of California Berkeley; Visiting Professor: Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai India; Adjunct Professor: College of Engineering Pune (COEP) India; Former Deputy Director: National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI)/CSIR

Abstract:

Exponential population growth, rapid urbanization and industrialization coupled with inadequate emphasis on environmental pollution control programs resulted into increased energy needs and environmental degradation in almost all the countries. Nature's real estate such as water, minerals, oil & gas, and coal -is the precious gift available for the welfare of mankind and is being exploited since many centuries.  In spite of the efforts initiated by many countries in the development of non-conventional energy resources, it is too early to visualize that the gap between supply and demand of energy for the peaceful purposes could be bridged in the near future.

It is true that major decisions such as selecting energy options for the country are made without advance knowledge of their consequences. Expected utility theory, prospect theory are some of the economic theories used in decision making under risk. The sequel begins with a commentary on decision making under risk and the important aspects of the above stated theories. Further, an illustrative example describing decision-making for the energy prospects (options) under risk is presented.  We believe that the decision of selecting energy options could also be approached with less computational bother as is intended in Prospect Theory (PT). Fuzzy Relational Calculus (FRC) proposed by Professor Lotfi Zadeh, the father of fuzzy logic and extended by other researchers is one of the powerful computational algorithms in Decision Making under Risk and Uncertainty. In this presentation, the application of Prospect Theory and FRC will be discussed and the advantage of FRC over PT will be demonstrated. A commentary on risk and uncertainty is the integral part of the sequel.

 

Location

Department of Computer Science and Engineering,
National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal,
Mangalore – 575 025, India

 

Contact

ICECCS 2014 Conference Secretariat,
Department of Computer Science and Engineering,
National Institute of Technology Karnataka, Surathkal,
Mangalore – 575 025, India
Email:  iceccs.conference@gmail.com